Predicting the On-Study Relapse Rate for Multiple Sclerosis Patients in Clinical Trials

Background: The annual relapse rate has been commonly used as a primary efficacy endpoint in phase III multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials. The aim of this study was to determine the relative contribution of different possible prognostic factors available at baseline to the on-study relapse rate in MS. Methods: A total of 821 patients from the placebo arms of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR) database were available for this analysis. The univariate relationships between on-study relapse rate and the baseline demographic, clinical, and MRI-based predictors were assessed. The multiple relationships were then examined using a Poisson regression model. Two predictor subsets were selected. Subset 1 included age at disease onset, disease duration, gender, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, number of relapses in the last 24 months prior to baseline, and the disease course (RR and SP). Subset 2 consisted of Subset 1 plus gadolinium enhancement status in MRI. The number of patients for developing the models with no missing values was 727 for Subset 1 and 306 for Subset 2. Results:The univariate relationships show that the on-study relapse rate was higher for younger and for female patients, for RR patients than for SP patients, and for patients with positive enhancement status at entry (Wilcoxon test, p<0.05). A higher on-study relapse rate was associated with a shorter disease duration, lower entry EDSS, more pre-study relapses and more enhancing lesions in T1 at entry. The fitted Poisson model shows that disease duration (estimate=-0.02) and previous relapse number (estimate=0.59 for 1, 0.91 for 2 and 1.45 for 3 or more relapses vs 0 relapse) remain. We were able to confirm these findings in a second, independent dataset. Conclusions: The relapse number prior to entry into clinical trials together with disease duration are the best predictors for the on-study relapse rate. Disease course and gadolinium enhancement status, given the other covariates, have no significant influence on the on-study relapse rate

Streamline integration as a method for structured grid generation in X-point geometry

We investigate structured grids aligned to the contours of a two-dimensional flux-function with an X-point (saddle point). Our theoretical analysis finds that orthogonal grids exist if and only if the Laplacian of the flux-function vanishes at the X-point. In general, this condition is sufficient for the existence of a structured aligned grid with an X-point. With the help of streamline integration we then propose a numerical grid construction algorithm. In a suitably chosen monitor metric the Laplacian of the flux-function vanishes at the X-point such that a grid construction is possible. We study the convergence of the solution to elliptic equations on the proposed grid. The diverging volume element and cell sizes at the X-point reduce the convergence rate. As a consequence, the proposed grid should be used with grid refinement around the X-point in practical applications. We show that grid refinement in the cells neighboring the X-point restores the expected convergence rate

A continuous population of variable stars up to about 1.5 mag above the horizontal branch?

Increasing samples of pulsating variable stars populating the classical instability strip from the horizontal branch to a few magnitudes brighter are being found in several Local Group galaxies, irrespective of the galaxy morphological type. We will review the observational scenario focusing in particular on the Anomalous Cepheids and related objects.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, invited review in JENAM 2003, "Minisymposium: Asteroseismology and Stellar Evolution", Communications in Asteroseismology, in pres

Kinks: Fingerprints of strong electronic correlations

The textbook knowledge of solid state physics is that the electronic specific heat shows a linear temperature dependence with the leading corrections being a cubic term due to phonons and a cubic-logarithmic term due to the interaction of electrons with bosons. We have shown that this longstanding conception needs to be supplemented since the generic behavior of the low-temperature electronic specific heat includes a kink if the electrons are sufficiently strongly correlatedComment: 4 pages, 1 figure, ICM 2009 conference proceedings (to appear in Journal of Physics: Conference Series

Projective Quantum Monte Carlo Method for the Anderson Impurity Model and its Application to Dynamical Mean Field Theory

We develop a projective quantum Monte Carlo algorithm of the Hirsch-Fye type for obtaining ground state properties of the Anderson impurity model. This method is employed to solve the self-consistency equations of dynamical mean field theory. It is shown that the approach converges rapidly to the ground state so that reliable zero-temperature results are obtained. As a first application, we study the Mott-Hubbard metal-insulator transition of the one-band Hubbard model, reconfirming the numerical renormalization group results.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

NASA/JPL Aircraft SAR Workshop Proceedings

Speaker-supplied summaries of the talks given at the NASA/JPL Aircraft SAR Workshop on February 4 and 5, 1985, are provided. These talks dealt mostly with composite quadpolarization imagery from a geologic or ecologic prespective. An overview and summary of the system characteristics of the L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) flown on the NASA CV-990 aircraft are included as supplementary information. Other topics ranging from phase imagery and interferometric techniques classifications of specific areas, and the potentials and limitations of SAR imagery in various applications are discussed

The old anticentre open cluster Berkeley 32: membership and fundamental parameters

We have obtained medium-low resolution spectroscopy and BVI CCD imaging of Berkeley 32, an old open cluster which lies in the anticentre direction. From the radial velocities of 48 stars in the cluster direction we found that 31 of them, in crucial evolutionary phases, are probable cluster members, with an average radial velocity of +106.7 (sigma = 8.5) km/s. From isochrone fitting to the colour magnitude diagrams of Berkeley 32 we have obtained an age of 6.3 Gyr, (m-M)0 = 12.48 and E(B-V) = 0.10. The best fit is obtained with Z=0.008. A consistent distance, (m-M)0 ~= 12.6 +/- 0.1, has been derived from the mean magnitude of red clump stars with confirmed membership; we may assume (m-M)0 ~= 12.55 +/- 0.1. The colour magnitude diagram of the nearby field observed to check for field stars contamination looks intriguingly similar to that of the Canis Major overdensity.Comment: MNRAS, in press. Degraded resolution for Fig.